This article looks not only at the historical pricing for some major routes but also at the lowest fares for the next six months and which months and airlines they are available on.
The changes in flight prices in the last 7 years have been pretty astonishing. From the glory days of the sub £1000 Hawaii fare before Covid and the bargains just after Covid to the eye-watering prices that seem normal now, it’s hard to know what is a reasonable price. So we have done some analysis over the last year to see what sort of price you should be aiming for to some key destinations. We will also look at whether flying from the EU is likely to be cheaper.
For the purposes of this article, I have excluded Norse Atlantic since it is a premium economy product, and Icelandair, as it is not comparable with other business class flatbed seats.
The key with business pricing is not just to look at the price but at what is included and what the airline is like. If you can spend £100 to get a modern suite versus an old BA yin-yang style seat, it may well be worth the extra, for example. Also, many airlines exclude things like lounge access with their lowest fares, which is often an important part of the journey for many travellers.
You should take the lowest fares as a starting point rather than the goal. Many of these lowest fares have very few seats available, but they give you an idea of the technically lowest achievable fare.
In this post:
New York
Even if you don’t want to go to New York itself, it can be a useful entry point to the US due to the fierce pricing competition and the abundance of reward flight availability. Internal flights in the US can be very cheap on Avios in terms of cash, so it is always worth considering NYC as the entry point. However, I would advise a stopover or allowing a lot of time for the connection since immigration is unpredictable and you have to collect your luggage and re-check it.
Here are the lowest prices and airlines over the last 12 months. Paris has the advantage of La Compagnie, which helps keep prices lower than somewhere like Amsterdam, where there is almost a SkyTeam monopoly on direct flights. The Dublin deals are normally a 6-month advance purchase, which they offer occasionally.
| Departure City | Lowest Legacy Price (Past Year) | Primary Airline(s) | Legacy “Good Deal” Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,137 | Aer Lingus / British Airways | £1,500 – £1,776 |
| Paris (CDG/ORY) | £1,223 | La Compagnie | £1,800 – £2,205 |
| London (LHR) | £1,484 | British Airways / Virgin Atlantic | £1,700 – £2,550 |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,679 | JetBlue (Mint) / SkyTeam | £1,679 – £2,400 |
If we look at what is available currently for the next 6 months, you will see that prices are broadly consistent with the historical prices.
| Departure City | Next 6 Months Best Price | Cheapest Month | Primary Airline(s) Available | Active Booking Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,245 | November / January | Aer Lingus / British Airways | Lowest winter sale fare; requires LHR connection or DUB direct. |
| Paris (CDG/ORY) | £1,390 | November | La Compagnie / Air France | Consistent off-peak pricing on all-business config. |
| London (LHR) | £1,570 | November | British Airways / Virgin Atlantic | Requires mid-week travel windows during Nov/Jan low periods. |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,745 | January | JetBlue (Mint) / SkyTeam Alliances | High baseline hub fees; requires booking 60+ days in advance. |
Los Angeles
Historic fares over 12 months:
| Departure City | Lowest Price (Past Year) | Primary Airline(s) | “Good Deal” Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| London (LHR) | £1,460 | SAS | £2,500 – £3,400 |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,720 | Scandinavian Airlines / Air France | £2,700 – £3,500 |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,890 | KLM / British Airways | £2,100 – £3,000 |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,980 | Scandinavian Airlines / SkyTeam | £2,500 – £3,400 |
The cheapest fares are usually connecting flights, but the historical low does not seem to have been repeated for a while from London. The fare was part of a sale when SAS joined SkyTeam and ran a very aggressive business class fare sale.
Current cheapest fares for next 6 months:
| Departure City | Next 6 Months Best Price | Cheapest Month | Primary Airline(s) Available | Active Booking Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris (CDG) | £1,910 | November | Scandinavian Airlines / Air France | Excellent connecting rates via seasonal Sky Alliance updates. |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £2,070 | November | Scandinavian Airlines / KLM | Requires mid-week departures |
| Dublin (DUB) | £2,026 | November / December | British Airways / American Airlines | Requires connecting through LHR or East Coast US hubs. |
| London (LHR) | £2,202 | November / December | Scandinavian Airlines / Air France | Requires a brief European connection to shave £1,000+ off direct LHR flights. |
Maldives
Historic fares:
| Departure City | Lowest Price (Past Year) | Primary Airline(s) | “Good Deal” Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,349 | Etihad Airways / Qatar Airways | £1,650 – £2,100 |
| London (LHR/LGW) | £1,450 | Turkish Airlines / Gulf Air | £1,990 – £2,690 |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,530 | Etihad Airways / Oman Air | £1,850 – £2,400 |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,620 | Qatar Airways / Saudia | £1,950 – £2,500 |
Current cheapest fares for the next 6 months:
| Departure City | Next 6 Months Best Price | Cheapest Month | Primary Airline(s) Available | Active Booking Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,465 | November | Etihad Airways / Qatar Airways | Requires a single stopover in Doha or Abu Dhabi; unbundles lounge access on baseline fares. |
| London (LHR) | £1,694 | November / January | Gulf Air / Etihad Airways | Connecting flights save £900+ over British Airways’ seasonal direct options. |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,710 | January | Gulf Air / Qatar Airways | High availability on mid-week departures via Gulf network hubs. |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,795 | February | Etihad Airways / Kuwait Airways | Strict airport luxury taxes apply; requires booking 90 days out to clear base inventory. |
Bangkok
Bangkok has managed to keep relatively low fares. Again, I’d ignore the super cheap lowest prices and look more at the range for a more accurate indication. The Middle East carrier have helped keep prices low for many Asian cities including Bangkok.
Historic fares:
| Departure City | Lowest Price (Past Year) | Primary Airline(s) | “Good Deal” Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £715 (€850) | SAS / Finnair | £1,150 – £1,500 |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £775 (€920) | KLM / Air France | £1,200 – £1,650 |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,130 | Etihad Airways / Qatar Airways | £1,450 – £1,850 |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,345 | Oman Air / SriLankan Airlines | £1,600 – £2,100 |
| London (LHR) | £1,597 | Gulf Air / Royal Jordanian | £2,200 – £2,800 |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,640 | Saudia / Etihad Airways | £1,800 – £2,400 |
Current cheapest fares for next 6 months:
| Departure City | Next 6 Months Best Price | Cheapest Month | Primary Airline(s) Available | Active Booking Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £1,150 | November / April | ||
| Stockholm (ARN) | £1,210 | November | Air France / Thai Airways | Look for mid-week SkyTeam sales |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,395 | November / May | Etihad Airways / Qatar Airways | Bypasses UK luxury flight taxes, saving £600+ over a standard direct London flight. |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,580 | May | Oman Air / Air India | Requires tracking seasonal flash sales; watch out for longer layovers. |
| London (LHR) | £1,890 | May / June | Gulf Air / SriLankan Airlines | Connecting through the Middle East saves significant money over direct Thai Airways. |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,920 | May | Saudia / Qatar Airways | High localized airport taxes; booking 90+ days in advance is required. |
Singapore
The market for long-haul luxury travel to Singapore Changi Airport follows the established pattern seen with Bangkok. The routes are dominated by Singapore Airlines, the Middle Eastern carriers (Qatar Airways, Emirates, Etihad), and European operators (Finnair, Lufthansa, Swiss, Air France/KLM). Oslo and Stockholm deliver the lowest historical entry points for premium travel. Global legacy airlines aggressively discount tickets starting in these markets to fill their secondary connection banks (routing via Helsinki, Doha, or Paris) rather than relying on direct hub passengers. Meanwhile, London commands the highest premium price as usual, sustained by massive business-travel demand for non-stop flagship products like Singapore Airlines’ A380/777 Business Class or British Airways’ Club Suite.
Historic fares:
| Departure City | Lowest Price (Past Year) | Primary Airline(s) | “Good Deal” Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £1,195 (€1,425) | Finnair / Air France | £1,350 – £1,750 |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £1,260 (€1,502) | KLM / Qatar Airways | £1,400 – £1,800 |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,420 | Etihad Airways / Qatar Airways | £1,650 – £2,100 |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,495 (€1,780) | Hainan Airlines / Air India | £1,700 – £2,300 |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,680 | Saudia / Etihad Airways | £1,890 – £2,450 |
| London (LHR) | £1,780 | Hainan Airlines / Gulf Air | £2,460 – £3,400 |
Current cheapest fares for next 6 months:
| Departure City | Next 6 Months Best Price | Cheapest Month | Primary Airline(s) Available | Active Booking Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £1,310 | November / March | Finnair / Qatar Airways | Highly efficient routing via Helsinki or Doha; books up 45+ days early. |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £1,385 | November | Air France / Turkish Airlines | Leverages mid-week SkyTeam promotional fare windows to capture lowest tiers. |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,510 | March / April | Etihad Airways / Qatar Airways | Avoids steep UK luxury aviation taxes entirely; routes via Gulf hub networks. |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,690 | November | Oman Air / SriLankan Airlines | Keenly priced secondary connections; look at layover timings before booking. |
| London (LHR) | £1,895 | November / April | Hainan Airlines / Gulf Air | Connecting schedules drop prices significantly over direct, non-stop London carriers. |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,940 | March | Saudia / Etihad Airways | Substantial local airport fees; requires mid-week travel targeting. |
Sydney
Australia has seen huge price rises since Covid but the re-entry of Chinese carriers is helping to bring it down slightly now.
Traveling from Europe to Australia represents one of the longest commercial flight paths globally, making it heavily dominated by the Middle Eastern “Big Three” (Qatar Airways, Emirates, Etihad), alongside Asian flag carriers (Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Malaysia Airlines, China Southern) and European operators routing through hubs.
The “Scandinavian Discount” remains highly effective for Australia. Oslo and Stockholm anchor the cheapest premium price points. Mainstream legacy lines drop their fares from these specific hubs to attract passengers into their connection networks (usually routing through Doha, Guangzhou, or Shanghai). London commands a steep premium, especially for highly sought-after, ultra-long-haul services like Qantas’ non-stop flights.
There are actually some very reasonable fares available, but you will need to be flexible on travel dates, as these are usually for very restricted dates.
Historic fares:
| Departure City | Lowest Legacy Price (Past Year) | Primary Airline(s) | Legacy “Good Deal” Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £1,980 (€2,365) | China Southern / Qatar Airways | £2,250 – £2,850 |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £2,050 (€2,448) | Air China / Qatar Airways | £2,300 – £2,900 |
| Dublin (DUB) | £2,190 | Etihad Airways / Malaysia Airlines | £2,450 – £3,100 |
| Paris (CDG) | £2,280 (€2,720) | China Eastern / Oman Air | £2,500 – £3,300 |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £2,410 | Saudia / Etihad Airways | £2,650 – £3,450 |
| London (LHR) | £2,695 | China Southern / Gulf Air | £3,400 – £4,600 |
Current cheapest fares for next 6 months:
| Departure City | Next 6 Months Best Price | Cheapest Month | Primary Airline(s) Available | Active Booking Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £2,150 | November / May | Qatar Airways / China Southern | Requires multi-stops via China or Doha; books out 60+ days early. |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £2,240 | November | Air China / Qatar Airways | Utilise early mid-week sales; watch out for longer layovers in Asian hubs. |
| Dublin (DUB) | £2,385 | May | Etihad Airways / Malaysia Airlines | Bypasses steep UK luxury flight taxes entirely, routing via Gulf networks. |
| Paris (CDG) | £2,490 | November | China Eastern / Vietnam Airlines | Highly competitive rates across SkyTeam connections; review layover lengths closely. |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £2,620 | May | Saudia / Etihad Airways | Incurs standard localized structural hub fees; requires booking well ahead of time. |
| London (LHR) | £2,850 | May / June | China Southern / Gulf Air | Connecting schedules save over £1,000 compared to non-stop Kangaroo Route options. |
Cape Town
Fares are highly affected by the seasonality of South Africa’s summer and the lack of direct flights from mainland Europe, leaving the market to be dominated by British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, the SkyTeam alliance (Air France/KLM), and Middle Eastern carriers (Qatar Airways, Emirates) as well as Turkish Airlines. Prices for the next six months will be high as it is peak season (summer).
.The “Scandinavian Discount” is also valid for South African travel. Oslo and Stockholm routinely offer the lowest historical base rates, driven by aggressive British Airways flash sales designed to pull premium passengers into a Heathrow connection before continuing south.
Historic fares:
| Departure City | Lowest Price (Past Year) | Primary Airline(s) | “Good Deal” Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £810 (€949) | British Airways / Qatar Airways | £1,450 – £1,950 |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £855 (€1,002) | British Airways / KLM | £1,500 – £2,050 |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,390 | KLM / Air France | £1,650 – £2,200 |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,480 | Ethiopian Airlines / Turkish Airlines | £1,800 – £2,450 |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,595 | Kenya Airways / Qatar Airways | £1,900 – £2,600 |
| London (LHR) | £1,790 | Kenya Airways / Ethiopian Airlines | £2,400 – £3,300 |
Current cheapest fares for next 6 months:
| Departure City | Next 6 Months Best Price | Cheapest Month | Primary Airline(s) Available | Active Booking Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £1,495 | November / December | British Airways / Lufthansa | Requires tracking seasonal flash sales; routes via LHR or FRA hubs. |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £1,540 | November | KLM / Qatar Airways | Leverages mid-week SkyTeam promotional rates to capture lowest base rates. |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,610 | January | Air France / Turkish Airlines | Bypasses high UK luxury departure taxes completely; routes via mainland hubs. |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,795 | May | Turkish Airlines / EgyptAir | Requires a single stopover in Istanbul or Cairo; verify layover lengths carefully. |
| London (LHR) | £2,370 | November | Kenya Airways / Ethiopian Airlines | Connecting schedules save over £2,000 compared to non-stop BA or Virgin flights. |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £2,410 | May | KLM / Qatar Airways | High airport fees; requires booking 60+ days early. |
Buenos Aires
The market is primarily dominated by Latin-focused European flag carriers (Iberia, Air Europa) alongside major network players (ITA Airways, British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France/KLM).
The “Scandinavian Discount” remains highly effective for South American travel. Oslo and Stockholm deliver the lowest historical premium entries. Legacy lines (like Iberia and ITA Airways) frequently clear out premium inventory from Northern Europe to feed their southern hubs in Madrid or Rome. Conversely, London maintains a high pricing level as business and premium leisure travelers pay a premium to bypass multiple stopovers.
Historic fares:
| Departure City | Lowest Price (Past Year) | Primary Airline(s) | “Good Deal” Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £1,085 (€1,295) | Iberia / ITA Airways | £1,450 – £1,950 |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £1,140 (€1,360) | Air France / Lufthansa | £1,500 – £2,050 |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,390 | British Airways / Air Europa | £1,650 – £2,100 |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,520 (€1,815) | ITA Airways / Iberia | £1,800 – £2,450 |
| London (LHR) | £1,918 | ITA Airways / Air Europa | £2,250 – £3,400 |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £1,960 | Lufthansa / SkyTeam | £2,200 – £2,990 |
Current cheapest fares for next 6 months:
| Departure City | Next 6 Months Best Price | Cheapest Month | Primary Airline(s) Available | Active Booking Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo (OSL) | £1,425 | February | Iberia / ITA Airways | Requires connecting via Rome or Madrid; books out 45+ days early. |
| Stockholm (ARN) | £1,490 | February | Air France / Air Europa | Leverages mid-week SkyTeam promotional rates to capture lowest tier base fares. |
| Dublin (DUB) | £1,595 | November | British Airways / Iberia | Bypasses high UK departure taxes completely; routes via LHR or MAD. |
| Paris (CDG) | £1,740 | November | ITA Airways / Air Europa | Highly competitive one-stop connections; check layover durations carefully. |
| London (LHR) | £2,090 | November / February | ITA Airways / Iberia | Connecting through continental hubs saves £1,300+ over a direct BA flight. |
| Amsterdam (AMS) | £2,150 | November | Lufthansa / Air France | Incurs standard structural airport hub fees; requires mid-week travel targeting. |
What’s the best bargain business class fare you have had recently? Let us know in the comments below.
2 comments
Very interesting article Michele, thank you.
We’ve been using Helsinki as our departure point for Tokyo, Cape Town, Vietnam, Bangkok and Melbourne/Sydney for several years now. Mostly Qatar with the occasional Finnair and one Jal flights.
The critical point is the cost of getting from LHR/Gatwick to Helsinki that at times makes a mockery of this route, so careful comparison needs to be undertaken before committing to the main outbound flights. We often include a one night airport stay and a three night return stay that feels like two different holiday destinations and helps ease the jet lag transition. Securing Avios/Qpoints/hotel points, etc for each purchase is also critical to maximise returns on your investment.
All still expensive by comparison to pre-Covid (kindly provided by your wonderful heads-up of cheaper flights- not something we see much of these days unfortunately) however still low to mid £2k range per person on OneWorld to almost anywhere is achievable with some date flexibility. Last flight was Finnair (booking and tin) from LHR to HEL with a couple of hours stopover and on to BKK and return (again all Finnair tin with their excellent A350s and superbly professional service) for an excellent £2,301.95 GBP, that included lounges, 2 x 32kg bags, etc.
That said we just parked a cheeky unplanned flight down to Melbourne for next week as we couldn’t reconcile the cost in Business to HEL to make it work. Prices are eye watering at the moment.
Thanks for a very useful analysis. Glad that you still contribute your valuable insights to TLFL. BTW, any thoughts on the recent couple of chaotic incidents at your former employer? Kind regards.